Chris’s Commander Corner: My First Spec of 2023

Happy New Year!

I have my first spec of the year to share predicated on a combination of price action and precedence of other cards with the similar ability this card possesses.

The spec is Prosperous Innkeeper, an uncommon from Adventures in the Forgotten Realms.

The rate and utility of this card is fantastic since it repays you with a treasure token while also functioning as an Essence Warden. Speaking of Warden, that’s a $2-3 card that is almost always in demand despite numerous printings.

The best time to buy Prosperous Innkeeper was unfortunately right after AFR came out. It quickly bottomed out at $0.25 for non-foils and not much more for foils. Since then, it’s done nothing but climb, and in recent months the big bricks of supply have been chewed through making this a potential-final call before Innkeeper becomes the next in a long line of $3+ uncommons.

I picked up a dozen foils specifically because the premium on them via TCG Direct looks attractive. I’ve found NM copies for around $1.25 but I think this one is a comfortable buy in foil up to $1.50-1.75 as long as you have good outs, and especially true if you’re a TCG Direct seller.

Of note, Prosperous Innkeeper has a promo version which is likely what has held it back from skyrocketing higher already.

Promo Pack uncommons are noteworthy because they’re almost always a highly playable card. Thankfully these promos exist to add supply to the marketplace or these uncommons would likely be worth quite a bit more.

The promo version is already $3 and $6 respectively for non-foil and foil. It is in low-ish supply on TCG Direct currently, but I wasn’t able to find any obvious arbitrage, so do with that information as you will.

The non-foil is trickier because the arbitrage doesn’t exist like usual from CardTrader to TCGPlayer. Looking deeper at why this is the case and we find that Innkeeper also shows up in Modern and Pioneer aristocrats decks, such as Yawgmoth. Any time there’s demand outside of Commander, arbitrage is a harder proposition because non-Commander formats still largely drive the demand in countries outside of the United States.

I have passed on non-foils because I couldn’t find a reasonable buy-in that would be worth my time, but it’s worth acknowledging that if you play competitively and don’t have a playset of Prosperous Innkeeper yet, you may want to correct that sooner than later.

This will be a reprint-eligible card in 2023 like anything, so be mindful of that. I do think it holds up better than an average uncommon having come out of a D&D themed crossover set rather than a Standard MTG set.



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