Should You Buy the Post Malone or Warhammer 40K Secret Lairs?

Magic 30 celebrations have wrapped up in Vegas, Brothers’ War spoilers are in full swing, and all the while we’ve quietly got multiple Secret Lairs on sale right now. One of those Secret Lairs is the October Superdrop, but should we be buying into it? What’s the value of the drop, and is it worth it? I’ve broken out each part of the Superdrop below and included my analysis on a per-card, per-drop basis.

Before we get into the details, I want to call out a very important change to Secret Lair billing practices. The credit card added to an order used to only get charged immediately for orders over $600, however that is no longer the case. Beginning with the October Superdrop, all orders will be charged at the time the order is placed. This is a big difference that they don’t effectively communicate on the Scalefast checkout screen, but you’ll want to be aware of for budgeting purposes.

POST MALONE BUNDLE

First up, we have the Post Malone Bundle priced at $108.99. It is important to mention that buying this bundle saves you $30, or effectively gets you one of the non-foil Post Malone drops for free. This bundle includes 1 each foil and non-foil Backstage Pass and “The Lands” drops which are broken down further below.

Backstage Pass – $39.99 foil // $29.99 non-foil

  • Post, Son of Rich // K’rrik, Son of Yawgmoth: this is the second foil printing of K’rrik in 2022 (Judge Promo being the other), but this one should serve as a more budget-friendly foil option. My estimate is this version will sell for around $8 in non-foil and $12 in foil shortly after the Superdrop lands in peoples’ hands next year.
  • Post’s Sigil // Leshrac’s Sigil: this card is bulk from Ice Age which is getting its first reprint, and first in foil. While I don’t expect the non-foil to be worth anything more than $0.50, being a first-time foil might command a few bucks. All told, this is not why we’re buying the Backstage Pass.
  • Post’s Citadel // Bolas’s Citadel: like K’rrik, Bolas’s Citadel gets its second reprint in 2022 (Love Your LGS being the first). I wouldn’t expect this to be worth anything more than $1-2 for non-foil and $3-4 for foil. While Citadel is a high-demand EDH card, the amount of supply of this card is far too high to even speculate on unless you want to be holding for years. If you get the Backstage Pass, this is an easy “sell and move on” card.
  • Jet Medallion: the most important and iconic part of the Backstage Pass drop is Jet Medallion, and very specifically the fact that this is its first foil print. Importantly, Jet Medallion is the lone card in the drop which isn’t crossed over with Post Malone’s name, so its value won’t be closely tied to Posty fandom. I am a buyer of the Backstage Pass foil drop exclusively to get my hands on this card, and I suggest you consider doing the same. I believe the foil will command a $40-50 price tag in short order which will nearly pay for the rest of the drop by itself.

The Lands – $39.99 foil // $29.99 non-foil

I’m not a big fan of buying basic lands from Secret Lair. I have mostly shied away from the lands because at the end of the day they either have to be stunning (like blow your socks off incredible) or they have to be niche (i.e., snow lands) to be valuable. I would recommend buying Backstage Pass on its own and skipping on the lands. I just don’t see how these can return a $6/per card value or $8 if you get the foils just for breakeven (and that’s before you factor seller fees, shipping, etc.).

Posty Drop Recap: buy the Backstage Pass foil drop individually for $39.99.

I am a buyer of the Backstage Pass foil edition at $39.99 because I want to get copies of Jet Medallion in my inventory. I’m estimating the total of the foil cards in the drop to hold a TCGPlayer low value of $52-55 at release, however Jet Medallion could climb steadily as supply dwindles which makes this a solid Secret Lair to hold onto for 6-12 months. The fact Jet Medallion wasn’t included in the Warhammer 40K Necrons precon was big for its long-term outlook, and thus I am recommending a buy of the foil Backstage Pass drop only.

I am staying away from the non-foil version as well as The Lands drop, and I’d suggest not buying the bundle.

WARHAMMER 40K BUNDLE

Next we have the Warhammer 40K Bundle priced at $168.99. Buying this bundle saves $40, or effectively gets you one of the foil drops for free. This bundle includes 1 each foil and non-foil of Orks, Age of Sigmar, and the Blood Bowl drops which are broken down further below.

Orks – $39.99 foil // $29.99 non-foil

  • Aggravated Assault: a combo-engine for infinite combat in EDH, this is the big name card in the Orks drop. Like Jet Medallion above, this one is not tied in name to Warhammer 40K (although the art is) making it more appealing to the average person who might otherwise avoid buying a copy due to a crossover. This is a $35 card in non-foil and over $100 in foil, so if you just need a copy for a deck, this drop is for you. I am a buyer of the foil drop in particular because of this card alone.
  • Da Vulcha // Skysovereign, Consul Flagship: Skysovereign holds a modest $3 price in non-foil and the foil commands a slight 2x premium due to playability in several formats. This is a nice value add to bolster the Orks drop.
  • Ork Commando // Merciless Executioner: this will be the second printing of Merciless Executioner, and while it is a near-bulk uncommon, the foils do hold some value at $3 depending on where you look. This is mostly a throw-in card for the drop that only really sees EDH play in Najeela.
  • Makari, the Lucky Grot // Krenko, Tin Street Kingpin: Krenko, Tin Street Kingpin has been reprinted so many times this is just a throw-in card for the drop.
  • Ghazghkull, Prophet of the Waaagh! // Zurgo Helmsmasher: see above for Krenko. This is a throw-in card.

Orks Drop Recap: I generally stay away from drops that only have one highly playable commander card (Aggravated Assault in this case), but Skysovereign has enough demand from Pioneer that I’m willing to call the foil Orks drop a modest buy so long as you are comfortable with the crossover element. I think the names being tied to 40K could help the long-term trajectory of this drop, but that is entirely subjective, and I am based it solely on the reception the community has had to the 40K precons. I do not plan to buy this drop personally.

Age of Sigmar – $39.99 foil // $29.99 non-foil

  • Archaeon the Everchosen // Najeela, the Blade-Blossom: we finally get a reprint of Najeela to help buoy its price! Currently a $12-15 card depending on the version, this is one of the important chase cards in the Age of Sigmar drop which will help return value.
  • Ghal Maraz the Great Shatterer // Loxodon Warhammer: like each drop before, we have another card which is heavily reprinted in non-foil ($0.50) but has one or fewer foil printings. Loxodon Warhammer hasn’t seen a foil print since 10th Edition ($12 TCG low) which means the Age of Sigmar foil drop gets a little boost in value.
  • Blind Obedience: here we have a card with three non-foil prints already but another scenario with only one foil version (Gatecrash, $15 for LP). Blind Obedience is a solid commander stax piece that maintains a $5+ non-foil price tag despite its three prints already, and this version does not attach to the 40K crossover other than by art, making it an interesting wildcard to value from this drop. I’m pegging this as a $5/$8 non-foil/foil split to be conservative, but it is plausible those are low estimates, especially the foil one.
  • Neave Blacktalon // Danitha, Capashen Paragon: the foil is modestly priced around $5, but the non-foil is bulk. I’m not going to evaluate the non-foil in the interest of time, but note that the foil does add $4-5 dollars to the total value of this drop.
  • Stardrake // Scourge of the Throne: Dragons are always a good place to invest in Magic and uncoincidentally, Scourge of the Throne is the other chase card of the Age of Sigmar drop. The current prints command around $10/$20 non-foil/foil, so conservatively we can add $8/$14 to our total drop value. You’ll notice I am discounting the foil because the math on this drop generally tells everyone to buy foil meaning we’ll have more foil supply on the market in the long-run.

Age of Sigmar Drop Recap: the foil value for this drop is substantial based on current TCG low valuations. I think if you’re buying Age of Sigmar, you will do just fine if you buy the foil edition from a value standpoint, however the contrarian play is to buy the non-foil because this drop has such playable cards in it. Most MTG finance creators may recommend buying the foil and not realize that if everyone buys the foil, the non-foil will actually have more value due to scarcity.

I believe the non-foil Age of Sigmar drop could appreciate at a faster pace and return a higher long-term value than its foil counterpart. Important to remember non-foil versions are the preferred option by a vast majority of players due to foil curling issues (among other reasons); and if you need a tie-breaker, just know it is always easier to sell non-foil than foil.

Blood Bowl – $39.99 foil // $29.99 non-foil

  • Perfect Defense // Defense of the Heart: as a lover of tutoring up stompy creatures and someone who has played since Urza’s Legacy, Defense of the Heart always has nostalgia tied to it for me. That said, this isn’t really the type of lead card I want to bank $30/$40 investments into for a Secret Lair drop, and it also has a Judge Promo and List reprint to keep its price down. I don’t value this highly at all giving it no more than $10/$15 as the non-foil/foil splits for where I think this will sell on TCGPlayer in a few months.
  • The Ball // Fellwar Stone: sadly we just found out that the Talisman Secret Lair had a secret card that is none other than… Fellwar Stone! Most websites haven’t caught up to this new “secret card”, so we don’t have a ton of pricing to go by, but the version we got in the Talisman drop is retro frame foil etched just like the Arcane Signet (secret card in the Signet Secret Lair drop) and Sol Ring (Love Your LGS promo) before it. I think this curbs the foil version of this drop substantially, so much so that I’d peg this as being no more than $5/$12 in non-foil/foil value on TCGPlayer once this Secret Lair ships.
  • Touchdown! // Approach of the Second Sun: while this is a fun if not aspirational wincon in commander, Approach of the Second Sun is not worth enough to discuss. This is a $1/$3 value add for non-foil/foil currently, and it just got a Mystical Archive treatment in Strixhaven that likely supercedes this version in terms of “blingness”. That said, the Mystical Archive is around $20, so if you value the Secret Lair version comparably, then you should reassess the Blood Bowl drop accordingly using your own due diligence.
  • Re-Roll // Rewind: throw-in, Rewind is bulk.
  • Both Down // Bone Splinters: throw-in, Bone Splinters is bulk.
  • Throw Team-Mate // Fling: throw-in, Fling is bulk.

Blood Bowl Drop Recap: ironically you get the most cards in the Blood Bowl drop but most of them are bulk, so the value of this drop projects to be the worst of the Warhammer 40K bundle. I’m passing on this drop entirely, especially after seeing the Fellwar Stone reprint by way of the Talisman Secret Lair “secret card”.

WARHAMMER 40K BUNDLE WRAP UP

The value of the bundle does eek by in terms of total TCG low value of the cards to the price of the bundle ($168), however I would steer clear on buying the entire bundle unless you are dead set on owning all the cards in it, or you’re simply a collector of each Secret Lair that drops. If you are a speculator, I think the best bet is buying non-foil Age of Sigmar as I believe that will have the most appreciation ahead of it over a 12 month horizon from the time this drop lands in our hands.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

This article got long fast, so I’ll be closing it down here and covering the rest of the Superdrop in a subsequent article tomorrow. I hope you enjoyed my analysis and this helps you make an informed decision on how you want to approach the Post Malone and Warhammer 40K Secret Lair bundles.

Cheers!

Chris Martin is the co-founder of Conviction Gaming and co-host of the Brewin’ With Conviction podcast. He has been playing MTG since 1998 and is an avid EDH player with a knack for MTG finance.

You can reach Chris via DM and find more of his daily MTG content by following on Twitter @ChiStyleGaming.

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Exit mobile version